Oxford can clinch the 1-seed this week with an Oxford win AND a Lake Cormorant loss to Clarksdale. Oxford does NOT clinch the 1-seed this week IF Oxford wins AND Lake Cormorant wins, but it would clinch a home game in the playoffs. Lake Cormorant still has a shot at the one-seed if they beat Oxford next week AND West Point trips up in either of their last two games.
West Point's situation is that they will be the 2-seed unless Oxford begins a two-week choke job. The 2-seed will be solidified if they win this week and Lake Cormorant loses to Clarksdale and Oxford beats Center Hill.
I speak a lot about Lake Cormorant so far. They have not clinched a playoff berth yet. They will clinch a playoff berth with a win over Clarksdale this week. If they lose, it will make it a lot harder on themselves to clinch a playoff berth. A win this week keeps them alive for the 1-seed with an upset of Oxford the following week. They really could go anywhere between 1 and not be there at all.
Before I get to Center Hill, there is a chance Oxford, West Point, and Lake Cormorant could all end up at 6-1. The first and second tiebreakers won't work. The third tiebreaker is point difference. Currently, Oxford is +12, West Point is 0, Lake Cormorant is -12. Lake Cormorant would have to beat Oxford by 12 or more points to make that a tie. The fourth tiebreaker is point difference among other teams in the region. Oxford and West Point has beaten to this point everyone by 12+ points. Lake Cormorant has not (they did not beat New Hope or Lewisburg by 12 or more). Lake Cormorant would drop out of the tiebreaker there unless Oxford doesn't beat Center Hill by 12 or more this week. If Oxford does, Lake Cormorant ends up being the 3-seed, and Oxford and West Point would revert to head-to-head still being tied within the tie and because Oxford defeated West Point head-to-head, Oxford gets the 1-seed anyways and West Point the 2-seed.
Center Hill cannot do a lot about their playoff positioning or clinch a spot this week. Their playoff fate - regardless of the result against Oxford - will hinge on the Clarksdale game next week. If they do beat Oxford this week, it will help out some tiebreakers (namely the second one) in trying to get in the playoffs, especially if Lake Cormorant loses this week. One thing is clear though, they MUST beat Clarksdale next week to get in.
Clarksdale is in the same boat. They cannot clinch a spot this week with a win, but they can help themselves by beating Lake Cormorant and it could help them out if the point difference tiebreaker comes into play with Center Hill and Lake Cormorant. It will be much clearer next week.
New Hope, Lewisburg, and Saltillo has been out of the picture for some time now.
Here is 2-5A:
Grenada clinched a home playoff game last week with their win over Holmes County Central. They can clinch the 1-seed this week with a win over Vicksburg. Grenada owns all the head-to-head tiebreakers with Holmes County Central, Ridgeland, and Germantown.
Germantown clinched a playoff berth last week mathematically. The only situation where they could be in a 3-way tie with Vicksburg is with Holmes County Central. It is impossible to be in a 4-way tie with Ridgeland with 3 losses because both would have to lose out and both Germantown and Ridgeland has not played each other yet. Germantown owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Holmes County Central and Vicksburg. Germantown cannot really move position-wise for seeding this week and will likely face Ridgeland for a home playoff game the following week.
Ridgeland however has not clinched a playoff berth despite having the same record. They can clinch a playoff berth AND at least the 3-seed with a win over Holmes County Central OR they can still clinch a playoff berth with a Vicksburg loss to Grenada.
Holmes County Central can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win over Ridgeland AND a Vicksburg loss to Grenada. They need both of those things to happen, or they will likely play Vicksburg next week for the 4-seed in the playoffs.
Vicksburg needs a lot of help. They must pull the upset on Grenada to stay in the playoff hunt. If they can't, they must get help by Holmes County Central losing to Ridgeland this week. If the Gators lose and HCC wins, they are eliminated.
Neshoba Central - even at 1-4 right now - is not out of the playoffs yet, but they need so much help that it won't likely happen. They need: To win out (beat Lanier and Grenada), HCC to lose out, Canton to lose one of their remaining two games, and Vicksburg to lose to Grenada and then beat HCC. That will create a 3-way tie at 3-4 for the 4-seed. Because of the second tiebreaker where Neshoba Central was the only team to beat the eventual 1-seed in this situation Grenada, they would win the tiebreaker and be the 4-seed.
Canton is eliminated due to having no tiebreakers to win with to catch up to HCC currently at 3-2 and overtake the other teams infront of them. Lanier is just terrible - again.
That's the current playoff situation. Next week it will get much clearer.